One of the issues with predicting Oscar nominations early, is that until the studios start their “push” we really do not know who is in the top spots or who is in the supporting ones. It seems that some of the “pushing” has begun and unfortunately this means a big change in my predictions…and here is the why.
Paramount Vantage is not pushing for Brad Pitt in the lead category, but in the supporting for his role in “Babel”. Now before we all get angry about this unfortunate studio oversight just think about it for a moment. Forest Whitaker is already being tooted as a sure fire winner in the lead category for his work in “Last King of Scotland”. Hell he has already been on Oprah! Peter O’Toole is a grand gentleman of cinema so why put your man up against these two performances? Make sense? Who knows, but what I do know is the after all the hoopla in Venice, Brad will definitely be up against Ben Affleck, as his is being pushed big time in the supporting category as George Reeves in Hollywoodland.
The actors categories are not the only ones that are a bit confused this year, but Meryl will be in contention this year with her role in The Devil Wears Prada, along with Helen Mirren and Annette Bening and Dame Judi Dench. Who does that leave us with? Penelope Cruz of course.
So with that said here are my updated predictions ( a few days early) for the month of October; (changes or new predictions are in yellow)
Flags of Our Fathers
Last King of Scotland
The Good German
Iñárritu for Babel
Eastwood for Flags of Our Fathers
Estevez for Bobby
Condon for Dreamgirls
Scorcessee for The Departed
Forest Whitaker; Last King of Scotland
Leonardo DeCaprio; The Departed
Peter O’Toole; Venus
Ryan Gosling; Half Nelson
Will Smith; Pursuit of Happyness
Helen Mirren; Queen
Judi Dench’ Notes on a Scandel
Meryl Streep; The Devil Wears Prada
Penelope Cruz; Volver
Annette Bening; Running With Scissors
Jack Nicholson; The Departed
Ben Affleck; Hollywoodland
Brad Pitt; Babel
Michael Caine; Children of Men
Eddie Murphy; Dreamgirls
Jill Clayburgh; Running With Scissors
Angelina Jolie; The Good German
Abagail Breslin; Little Miss Sunshine
Shakeera Epps; Half Nelson
Jennifer Hudson; Dreamgirls
I removed Cate Blanchett all together as I think that the studio will not want to push for Judi and Cate in “Notes” as Judi’s role is much heavier and bigger. I added Shakeera Epps as she is getting a lot of play time and talk for her role in Half Nelson, and if this movie gains an audience and crtics, both her and Ryan Gosling will be nominated. If you also notice I removed “All the Kings Men” and Sean Penn from the list. One of the reasons is the poor reviews, but also most of the time, remakes never quite get it. Sean Penn is a tremendous actor, but Huey Long was done already by Broderick Crawford. I also removed Maggie Gylenhaal from the running, but chances are I will put her back in depending on the whole “Volver” thing. I know I put Leonardo in the running for his role in “Departed” instead of Damon, but if Damon gets nominated it will be for “Good Shepherd”.
So there they are, and I am sure they will change again, so keep checking us out!